By Gerald Tenywa
As the current rain season progresses, Central Uganda should expect what weather experts have warned that it should expect heavy rains and floods in the last week of October.
“Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall expected in parts of southern Ethiopia, central Uganda and most parts of Somalia. This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas with high risk anticipated over South-eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia,” weather experts ICPAC stated.
ICPAC is the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, which networks with national meteorological bodies, including the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA).
Wetter than usual in northern Uganda
The regional weather body stated that northern Uganda should expect what they called wetter than usual conditions. “Wetter than usual conditions expected over Somalia, central and southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, and parts of southern Sudan, western Kenya and central Rwanda,” ICPAC stated.
Moderate rains in some parts of Uganda
Apart from central and northern, the rest of Uganda should expect moderate rainfall. “Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over much of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, South Sudan, Somalia, and parts of eastern central and western Ethiopia, and eastern Djibouti,” ICPAC stated.
Floods
The rainfall described as very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of southern Ethiopia, central Uganda and most parts of Somalia. “This may increase the likelihood of isolated flash flood events in flood-prone areas with high risk anticipated over South-eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia,” stated ICPAC.
Temperature
The temperatures are likely to remain favourable. “Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Tanzania, Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and southern Ethiopia.”
“Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over parts of central to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, eastern Rwanda and Burundi, and isolated regions in south-eastern Uganda and central to southern Tanzania.”
UNMA predicted enhanced rain in October
Dr. Bob Ogwang, the acting executive director of the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), released the rainfall update recently.
“The October rainfall outlook indicates that most parts of western, central, West Nile, and Mt. Elgon are likely to receive enhanced rainfall, while the rest of the country is likely to receive moderate rainfall conditions,” Ogwang said.
He also stated that the rainfall in September was concentrated in most parts of northern and eastern Uganda. The rest of the country received moderate rainfall conditions.
October is expected to be a wet month and is always associated with widespread rainfall across the country. “The rainfall outlook for October indicates that several parts of western Uganda, Central Uganda, West Nile, and Mt. Elgon are likely to experience normal (average) to above-normal rainfall,” Ogwang said. “The rest of the country is expected to receive normal rainfall.”
However, parts of Karamoja, also known as north-eastern Uganda, are expected to receive normal (average) rainfall with a tendency to below-normal (supressed) rainfall characterised by some dry spells during the forecast period.
Potential impacts
In the agricultural sector, the expected rainfall is expected to provide sufficient moisture to sustain agriculture production, and farmers are advised to continue weeding their crops.
The current rain season in October is likely to benefit the cattle corridor. This is because the moderate rainfall will lead to further improvements in foliage and pasture for livestock.
On the down side, during the current rain season in the month of October, there are high chances of experiencing lightening, hailstorms, and violet winds.
Chances of experiencing floods, particularly in low-lying areas, especially in urban areas with poor drainage, are likely to continue.
Also, the continued rainfall, especially in mountainous areas, is likely to lead to landslides and mudslides.
There are also high chances of an outbreak of water-borne-related diseases, according to the updated weather outlook for October.
Floods hit Kampala
In the review of September, the rainfall onset in most parts of the country has supported the planting of crops, according to Ogwang. As the rains continue in October, the farmers are advised to continue weeding their crops.
However, UNMA observed that there were floods that affected different parts of Kampala and Greater Kampala. The flooding led to the loss of lives as well as the destruction of property, according to Ogwang.
He also pointed out that there was an extended dry spell in western Uganda, which affected the planting of crops and pastures in the region.
Also, the extended dry spell did not only affect crops and pastures but also expanded the breeding grounds for vectors such as mosquitoes.
