Global coffee futures prices are experiencing a decline as Vietnam’s exports rise and Brazil’s rain forecasts weigh on markets.
According to the March 17, 2025, Daily Coffee Market Analysis Report, Robusta coffee futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) reflected bearish trends due to increased exports from Vietnam.
In addition, data from Vietnam’s General Statistics Office indicated a 6.6% rise in February exports, reaching 169,000 metric tons.
Consequently, Robusta May futures closed at $5,397 per ton (sh19,731,717) after shedding $131 (sh479,591), while July futures closed at $5,377 per ton (sh19,658,797), losing $129 (sh472,659) from the previous closing.
Similarly, Arabica coffee futures on the International Commodity Exchange (ICE) closed lower due to favourable weather forecasts in Brazil, which could boost supply.
May lost 8.05 US cents per pound, closing at 377.20 cents (sh13,810 per kilo), while the July position declined by 7.75 US cents, settling at 370.90 cents per pound (sh13,563 per kilo).
Uganda’s coffee market performance
Meanwhile, Uganda’s coffee market continues to show resilience despite global price fluctuations driven by supply and weather factors in key coffee-producing regions like Vietnam and Brazil.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry, and Fisheries (MAAIF), Robusta coffee prices continue to show resilience, with Robusta Screen 18 selling at sh21,078 per kilo, Screen 15 at sh20,674, and Screen 12 at sh20,432.
Arabica varieties also performed well, with Bugisu AA trading at sh30,040 per kilo, Bugisu A at sh29,960, and Bugisu PB at sh29,960.
Farm-gate prices and market volumes
Farm-gate prices showed notable growth. Fair Average Quality (FAQ) coffee sold between sh15,500 and sh16,000 per kilo, while Kiboko coffee ranged from sh7,800 to sh8,500 per kilo.
Arabica parchment traded between sh13,500 and sh14,500, while Drugar coffee (clean) fetched between sh12,000 and sh13,000 per kilo.
Regarding volume sales, Robusta Screen 15 recorded the highest trade volume at 5,373 (60-kilo) bags, followed by Robusta Screen 12 with 4,280 (60-kilo) bags and Robusta Screen 18 with 2,122 (60-kilo) bags.
Expert insight
Dr Michael Mugabira, a seasoned coffee farmer and industry expert, remains optimistic about Uganda’s coffee prospects. “The coffee futures remain bright, especially now that the rains have started,” he noted.
With stable domestic pricing and increasing demand, Dr Mugabira said Uganda’s coffee sector continues to hold promise despite external economic pressures.
Coffee exports up
The strong domestic market performance is reflected in the country’s coffee export figures from the January 2025 market report.
During the month, the country exported 550,341 60-kilo bags of coffee valued at $156.50 million. This translates to an average price of $4.74 per kilo, an increase of US cents 10 from December 2024 and a sharp rise from $2.74 per kilo in January 2024.
Year-on-year comparisons show significant growth. Uganda exported 6.44 million bags of coffee worth $1.62 billion between February 2024 and January 2025, a 3.91% increase in quantity and a 64.47% rise in value compared to the previous year.
